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  • For a meta-analysis on combining forecasts, see J. Scott Armstrong, "Combining Forecasts," in Principles of Forecasting, Kluwer, 2001, pp. 417-439 – Abstract;
  • Ray Fair's website includes an interactive feature that allows visitors to make their own predictions with alternative forecasts of the values of the variables in his presidential vote equation.
  • A list of 2004 presidential election websites is available at
  • At the Roper Center, one can find a wealth of information on public opinion and related topics on current and past elections going back to 1976.
  • The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press conducts in-depth surveys measuring public attitudes towar the press, public policy, other political issues, and candidates.
  • Check The Polling Report and RealClearPolitics for polling data on the election, by source, revised daily.
  • The Ipsos News Center posts results and analysis of the Associated Press-Ipsos presidential election polls.
  • The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute periodically polls the national electorate on the presidential election. It also surveys residents of Connecticut and neighboring states on public policy issues.
  • offers daily updates of their Presidential Tracking Poll. Shown in Polly's Table is the result of their weekly polling sample, which totals 3,500 likely voters.
  • There are several sites where one can track the odds or probabilities that President Bush will win reelection in November. These include,,, the Foresight Exchange, and the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM). (Polly wants it known, though, that she is not endorsing gambling or encouraging anyone to do so; she is reporting this only for the purpose of comparing forecasting methods, of which markets are one type.) IEM is the creation of and operated by the faculty of the University of Iowa Business School for teaching and research purposes – and as a forecasting tool. At IEM, Bush|Kerry contracts, that is, contracts on Bush beating Kerry, will be paid off according to the percent of the two-party vote Bush wins in November. Thus, these quotes are ideal for incoporating into the Pollyvote (along with polls and forecasts obtained by surveying a panel of experts and averaging across quantitative models).
  • Andrea Moro has a presidential election forecasting site. Using a simulation procedure, Prof. Moro assigns a probability to Bush or Kerry winning the Electoral College Count, and by how many votes, based on state-by-state poll data. The site is automatically updated throughout the day. Also, at the bottom of the page Prof. Moro provides links to other sites where one can find additional Electoral College predictions or simulations using different models and data.